31 octombrie 2011. Populaţia Terrei va atinge, pentru prima dată, pragul de 7 miliarde de locuitori. Pământeanul „cu numărul” şapte miliarde se va naşte, cu mare probabilitate, în China sau India, ţările care au populaţii de peste un miliard de locuitori.
Asta dacă nu cumva s-a născut deja ...
Organizaţia Naţiunilor Unite a stabilit că evenimentul ar putea avea loc, cel mai probabil, în ziua de 31 octombrie, dar istoria a dovedit că, de cele mai multe ori, aceste predicţii demografice pot fi eronate.
Nimeni nu poate şti sigur dacă populaţia Pământului nu a depăşit cumva pragul de 7 miliarde, de vreme ce niciun statistician nu se încumetă să dateze cu exactitate acest eveniment cu încărcătură simbolică.
Populaţia a crescut covârşitor în ultimele secole. Acum 2.000 de ani, când, după tradiţia creştină, s-a născut Iisus, se prespune că Terra avea în jur de 300 de milioane de locuitori. Pragul de un miliard a fost atins în anii 1800, cel de 6 miliarde a fost înregistrat în 1999. Organizaţia Naţiunilor Unite susţine că totuşi ritmul creşterii se va diminua gradat, estimând pentru anul 2050 o cifră cuprinsă între 8 şi 10,5 miliarde.
Această evoluţie va aduce cu ea unele schimbări. În curând, India, care are o populaţie actuală de 1,2 miliarde, va bate recordul Chinei, devenind cea mai populată ţară. O altă explozie demografică are loc în Africa subsahariană. Nigeria, cea mai populată dintre ţările Africii, cu 165 de milioane de locuitori, va avea o populaţie de 750 de milioane până la jumătatea acestui secol.
Un alt exemplu compară două regiuni diferite din punct de vedere al dezvoltării economice. Germania, un stat puternic industrailizat, care în prezent are 80 de milioane de locuitori, va rămâne, în următorii 40 de ani, cu o populaţie de 72 de milioane. La polul opus, Etiopia are în prezent o populaţie egală cu cea a Germaniei, dar în 4 decenii, numărul locuitorilor va fi de aproape 174 de milioane.
Asta înseamnă că lumea industralizată îmbătrâneşte rapid.
Schimbările populaţionale vor duce şi la schimbarea raporturilor de putere şi la modificarea influenţei politice al unor state. Ţări precum India, China şi Brazilia (aceasta din urmă având deja o populaţie de 193 milioane) au înregistrat deja o creştere a lor influenţei politice.
Ca urmare a acestor veşti, mulţi oameni politici europeni afirmă că, într-o lume populată de 7 miliarde de locuitori, cei 500 de milioane de europeni vor fi nevoiţi să se unească pentru a-şi păstra valorile. Evoluţia numerică va pune presiune asupra resurselor şi va crea conflicte între state.
Organizaţia WWF estimează că, dacă se menţine ritmul actual al consumului, până în 2050 am avea nevoie de trei planete de pe care să luăm resurse.
Sursa text: The Hindu
===============================
The billion-mark was reached only after 1800 AD. When Jesus was born, there are thought to have been around 300 million people on earth.
In the days ahead, a baby will be born who will take the global population above 7 billion for the first time, and in all probability that birth will take place in China or India, the two countries with more than a billion inhabitants.No one is sure. There may already be 7 billion passengers on spaceship earth, as no statistician would be prepared to say exactly when this event of largely symbolic significance takes place.
The United Nations has fixed October 31 as the date of the fateful birth, but events have so often proved demographers wrong in the past that the expectation is that it will be sooner rather than later The rate of population growth has soared over the course of recorded history: When Jesus was born, there are thought to have been around 300 million people on earth.
The billion-mark was reached only after 1800. As many as a billion have been added in the eleven years of the 21st century alone, and predictions on future population growth are now treated with the same caution and scepticism as long-range weather forecasts.
David Bloom of the Harvard School of Public Health says that the multitude of unpredictable factors means that taking a global view is problematic.
“Among them are infectious diseases, war, scientific progress, political change and our capacity for global cooperation,” he says.
The general expectation is, however, that population growth will tail off, with U.N. predictions for 2050 ranging from 8.0 to 10.5 billion.
What is clear is that the proportions will shift between the continents, driven by high birth rates in Asia and Africa. Soon India, with 1.2 billion currently, will take the lead from China, with 1.3 billion, as the world’s most populous nation.
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country today with 162 million, will see its population increase to almost 750 million by the middle of the century.
Another example: highly industrialised Germany and developing Ethiopia each have a little more than 80 million people. In another 40 years, there will probably be 174 million Ethiopians, while Germany’s population will decline to 72 million.
And the industrialised world is ageing rapidly.
This also means that relations of political power will change.
Countries like China, India and Brazil, with its 193 million people, are already growing in political influence.
This has led European leaders, like German Chancellor Angela Merkel, to warn that “in a world of 7 billion people, we 500 million Europeans will have to stick together,” or European prosperity and values will both go down the drain.
The sheer weight of numbers means increasing pressure on land, food and energy sources, and there are increasing fears of a struggle for resources. Many believe that there will be wars between neighbouring countries over water.
The environmental organisation WWF estimates that three planets will be needed by 2050 if we do not change our habits.
“In the next 40 years we will have to produce the same amount of food as over the last 8,000 years,” the WWF’s Jason Clay believes. He notes that far too much is still thrown away in the industrialised world.
The optimists note that there have been repeated apocalyptic warnings of impending doom resulting from population growth, although they have not yet been realised.
In fact, technical and medical achievements have often led to a more positive outcome than that feared - not only as a result of the Pill and condom, but also through agricultural improvements.
And even the current population mark being passed takes on a new perspective when compared with the number of people the earth has played host to over the course of human history.
It is estimated that since Homo sapiens first appeared, there have been more than 100 billion of our kind - against which the current 7 billion should be set.
In sistemul nostru solar,
Planeta numita Pamant, nu se simte deloc bine!
Planeta Albastra, sufera cumplit.
Explozia demografica, este in sine o uriasa bomba, cu efect garantat!
A luat-o razna, nu respecta nicio previziune!
Mai marii lumii sunt innebuniti! Cu febrilitate, cauta solutii ...
Creşterile agresivităţii statale, regionale, generate de lipsa resurselor,
vor fi alte pericole majore, deosebit de grave in teatrul de operatiuni TERRA.
Indiferent din care unghi privim PERICOLELE acestor ani,
Sfarsitul este aproape!
Admin
October 12 1999: The World Population Hits 6 Billion
RăspundețiȘtergere========
Less than three months before the dawn of the 21st century, planet Earth welcomed its 6 billionth inhabitant. Shortly after midnight in Sarajevo, Bosnia, Fatima Nevic gave birth to a historic 8-pound boy. The United Nations Population Fund designated this October Tuesday as the approximate day that the world's 6 billionth child would be born, and the Bosnian baby was greeted by U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan and officially recognized as the special one. The UNFPA proclaimed it "The Day of 6 Billion," or "D6B." While the occasion was only approximate, it generated worldwide discussion concerning population growth and the staggering predictions for the future.
=====================
Hmmm ....
12 octombrie 1999 ...
6.000.000.000 locuitori! ...
De retinut data! Sa vedem ... predictiile!
The population continues to grow and is expected to reach 7 billion by 2015.
RăspundețiȘtergere====================================
The Day of 6 Billion came only 80 days before the year 2000, providing excellent comparisons to past populations. In only 40 years, the world population had doubled. In 100 years, it had quadrupled. In only 12 years, it had increased by one billion. Median projections for population growth estimated that by the year 2050, the tally would top 9 billion, with an increase of roughly 77 million people per year. UNFPA statistics released in September 1999 also stated that the child had a less than 1 in 10 chance of being born into "relative prosperity," and a 3 in 10 chance of being born into "extreme poverty."
Critics pointed to alarming trends in population growth that indicated the world was not ready for a 50 percent population increase in the half century to come. The 30 percent estimated chance that the 6 billionth child would come from an indigent family reflected uneven global statistics. While growth had stopped on the soil of developed countries, it continued in the underdeveloped; the population was increasing in the places that could least afford it. Nations that had trouble providing food and sanitation in the 20th century would find it even harder with the growing numbers, they said. In a world where the gap between the rich and poor was greater than ever, (the richest 20 percent of humanity was said to have 82 times the income of the poorest 20 percent), the population increase was bottom-heavy.
====================
Previziunea ... 2015, DEVANSATA cu ... 4 ani!
Fantastic! 1.000.000.000 de locuitori in plus, doar in 12 ani! Care ar fi cauzele? Nivelul de trai mai bun? Sa fim seriosi! Saracia este cumplita! Se moare pe capete de foame!
Explozia demografica ... este o mare enigma!
Ce sa fie? Ce sa fie?
Da Vasile , chiar este o enigma. Cand stii ca China, care are aproape jumatate din populatia Terrei, si-a luat niste masuri drastice de stopare a fenomenului de crestere a natalitatii, te intrebi de ce nu procedeaza si ceilalti la fel? Problema tine de educatie, traditii,religie cultura,civilizatie, saracie,foamete (paradoxal nu, cele mai sarace au si natalitatea cea mai mare!)etc.
RăspundețiȘtergereDumnezeu stie, cati vom fi pana la sfarsit.
Sanatate si pace!
Revolutia tehnico-stiintifica care a dus la dezvoltarea medicinei si la eradicarea epidemiilor, in primul rand, au sustinut explozia demografica. Apoi, imputinarea razboaielor, cresterea duratei de viata ca urmare a cresterii nivelului de trai...in ciuda poluarii si a altor rele de care ne tot plangem...
RăspundețiȘtergereMerita citit si aici:
RăspundețiȘtergere====================
Georgia Guidestones.Ten Commandments. American Stonehenge. Un misterios monument megalitic. Cele 10 porunci, in varianta Noua Ordine Mondiala
========
http://romaniamegalitica.blogspot.com/2011/09/georgia-guidestonesten-commandments.html